Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities beyond Europe
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 110,
May 2020
(pp. 552-56)
Abstract
We examine if Brexit uncertainty has trade externalities beyond Europe. Using detailed data on export values and participation, tariffs, and Brexit probabilities prior to the referendum, we estimate ongoing negative trade-uncertainty elasticities between the United Kingdom and its non-European partner countries in preferential trade agreements that will require renegotiation post-Brexit. We use them to isolate the impact of the referendum on export values and net entry; we find effects similar to those identified by Graziano et al. (2018) for the UK and EU.Citation
Graziano, Alejandro G., Kyle Handley, and Nuno Limão. 2020. "Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities beyond Europe." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 552-56. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201021Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- F15 Economic Integration