COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 111,
May 2021
(pp. 287-91)
Abstract
Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods (looking back 12 months and ahead 12 months) have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity for employees to work from home.Citation
Barrero, Jose Maria, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Brent H. Meyer. 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 111: 287-91. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211110Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- I12 Health Behavior
- D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
- L25 Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
- J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- J23 Labor Demand