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Spatial Perspectives on Economic Opportunity

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 4, 2019 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

Atlanta Marriott Marquis, L505
Hosted By: Cliometric Society
  • Chair: Elisabeth Perlman, U.S. Bureau of the Census

Past and Present Differences in Opportunity by Neighborhood

Jonathan Rothbaum
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Catherine Massey
,
University of Michigan

Abstract

Recent research finds that childhood place affects adult economic outcomes, especially for children of low-income parents. However, understanding why one area causes better outcomes for low-income children than another is extremely challenging given estimates from only one point in time. Because places are shaped by both contemporary and historical factors, it is important to understand regional differences in opportunity both today and in the past. Using 1940 Census data linked to 1040 tax returns, we examine geographic differences in child outcomes experienced by cohorts born roughly 50 years apart -- revealing how intergenerational persistence of status has changed over time both at the national level and at smaller geographic levels. In studying these changes, we hope to shed light on the causes of intergenerational persistence in status and inequality of opportunity.

The Economic Assimilation of Irish Famine Migrants to the United States

Ariell Zimran
,
Vanderbilt University & NBER
William J. Collins
,
Vanderbilt University & NBER

Abstract

The repeated failure of Ireland's potato crop in the late 1840s led to a major famine and a surge in migration to the US. We build a dataset of Irish immigrants and their sons by linking males from 1850 to 1880 US census records. For comparison, we also link German and British immigrants, their sons, and males from US native-headed households. We document a decline in the observable human capital of famine-era Irish migrants compared to pre-famine Irish migrants and to other groups in the 1850 census, as well as worse labor market outcomes. The disparity in labor market outcomes persists into the next generation when immigrants’ and natives’ sons are compared in 1880. Nonetheless, we find strong evidence of intergenerational convergence in that famine-era Irish sons experienced a much smaller gap in occupational status than their fathers. The disparities are even smaller when the Irish children are compared to those from observationally similar native white households. A descriptive analysis of mobility for the famine-era Irish sons indicates that more Catholic surnames and birth in Ireland were associated with less upward mobility. Our results contribute to literatures on immigrant assimilation, refugee migration, and the Age of Mass Migration.

Rule of Law in Labor Relations, 1898-1940

Price Fishback
,
University of Arizona

Abstract

TBD

The Long Run Development Impacts of a Guest Worker Program: Evidence from the Bracero Program

Edward Kosack
,
Xavier University

Abstract

The Bracero Program was a historical guest worker program between Mexico and the United States that saw the temporary migration of nearly five million agricultural workers to the United States. Guest worker programs benefit the host country with relatively cheaper labor, and the sending communities with influxes of cash earned abroad. The Bracero Program provides an opportunity to understand the long term development impact of such a policy. I compare the adult outcomes of those children who were treated with exposure to the program (father migrating to the United States as a bracero) to those children who were not exposed. I propose two methods to isolate plausibly exogenous variation and estimate this effect. One is a family fixed effects model that compares siblings, and the other is a difference-in-differences model that exploits a natural experiment in the institutional history of the program. Positive effects in the long run provide further evidence of guest worker programs as good development policy.
Discussant(s)
Trevon Logan
,
Ohio State University
Joe Ferrie
,
Northwestern University
Greg Niemesh
,
Miami University
Philipp Ager
,
University of Southern Denmark
JEL Classifications
  • N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy