American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
(pp. 375–403)
Abstract
Incarceration is often justified by a defendant's risk of future crime. To what extent do biased beliefs about predictors of crime distort incarceration decisions? We survey prosecutors about how violent rearrest rates vary by defendant age and criminal history. Surveyed prosecutors make systematic errors: They underestimate the decline in rearrest with age and overestimate the increase with criminal history. By linking prosecutors' beliefs to their quasi-randomly assigned cases, we show that prosecutors' beliefs predict incarceration patterns by defendant age and criminal history in their cases. Finally, we find that prosecutors with more accurate beliefs simultaneously reduce violent rearrest and incarceration.Citation
Harrington, Emma, William III Murdock, and Hannah Shaffer. 2026. "Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 18 (2): 375–403. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230812Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- K14 Criminal Law
- K41 Litigation Process
- K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law