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Crime Prevention in the United States and Abroad

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 5, 2020 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PDT)

Marriott Marquis, Grand Ballroom 3
Hosted By: American Economic Association & Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession
  • Chair: Jennifer Doleac, Texas A&M University

The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom

Brittany Street
,
Texas A&M University

Abstract

Economic theory suggests crime should decrease as economic opportunities increase the returns
to legal employment. However, there are well-documented cases where crime increases in response
to areas becoming more prosperous. This paper addresses this puzzle by examining the effects on
crime only for residents already living in the area prior to the economic boom. This approach isolates
the effect of local economic opportunity from the effect of changing composition due to in-migration
during these periods. To identify effects, I exploit within- and across-county variation in exposure
to hydraulic fracturing activities in North Dakota using administrative individual-level data on residents, mineral lease records, and criminal charges. Results indicate that the start of economic
expansion – as signaled by the signing of leases – leads to a 14 percent reduction in criminal cases
filed. Effects continue once the fracking boom escalates during the more labor-intensive period. This
is consistent with improved economic opportunity reducing crime.

Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago

Sara Heller
,
University of Michigan
Marianne Bertrand
,
University of Chicago
Monica Bhatt
,
University of Chicago
Christopher Blattman
,
University of Chicago
Max Kapustin
,
University of Chicago

Abstract

Homicide kills more young African-American men than the nine other leading causes of death combined. Chicago’s unprecedented surge in gun violence is a stark example of this problem: In 2016, 765 victims – about 70 percent of whom were African-American men – were murdered, a 58 percent increase over the prior year. This study is a randomized controlled trial of a new intervention designed to reduce serious violence among those at the very highest risk of shooting involvement in Chicago. The Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) is premised on the principles that homicides are concentrated in a relatively small group of people, that these people and behaviors can be predicted in advance, and that it is possible to foster the skills and incentives to avert violence. The READI program provides 18 months of supported, subsidized work alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and personal development programming. READI uses three methods to identify the young men at the highest risk of violent gun crime: (i) machine learning-based prediction using administrative arrest and victimization records; (ii) referrals from the street outreach staff who work in the relevant neighborhoods, and (iii) screening among those leaving prison and jail, who might be at a key transition point. Serving this tail of the risk distribution could reduce extremely socially costly forms of violence without incurring the collateral costs of stepped-up law enforcement efforts. But whether high risk also means high responsiveness – and whether it is even possible to identify and serve this population – is an empirical question. This presentation will report early results of the READI RCT, including what we have learned so far about violence prediction, take-up, targeting, and program impacts.

Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador

Lelys Dinarte
,
World Bank

Abstract

This paper provides experimental evidence of the role of having different levels of violent peers in the context of an after-school program. By randomly assigning students to participate in the intervention with a set of similar or diverse peers in terms of violence, I measure effects of tracking on students' behavioral, neurophysiological, and academic outcomes. Participants were between 10-16 years old and enrolled in public schools in El Salvador. Results indicate that integrating students with different propensities for violence is better than segregating them, for both highly and less violent children. Particularly, the intervention can have unintended effects on misbehavior and stress if highly violent students are segregated and treated separately from their less violent peers.

Gangs, State Capacity, and Development

Maria Micaela Sviatschi
,
Princeton University
Nikita Melnikov
,
Princeton University
Carlos Schmidt-Padilla
,
University of California-Berkeley

Abstract

In this paper, we study the effect that two of the largest gangs in Latin America (MS-13 and 18th Street) have had on economic development in El Salvador. We exploit the fact that the emergence of gangs in El Salvador was in part the consequence of an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the United States to El Salvador. Using the exogenous variation in the timing of the deportations and the exact boundaries of the territories controlled by the gangs, we perform a spatial regression discontinuitydesignanddifference-in-differencesanalysistoestimatethecausaleffectof organized crime on development outcomes. Our results suggest that exposure to gangactivityresultedinsignificantlylowereconomicgrowth(measuredbynighttime light density), less human capital attainment, worse household conditions, and lower probability of owning durable goods. The results are not determined by selective migration away from gang locations. We argue that our findings are drivenbyhighextortionratesingangterritory, lowerinvestmentinpublicinfrastructure, and restrictions to residents’ mobility and labor choices. We also find that individuals are willing to pay additional USD $200 per month for housing to avoid living in neighborhoods that are controlled by gangs, implying that a marginalimprovementinlawandorderwouldbeequivalenttoapermanent60% increase in the level of GDP per capita.
Discussant(s)
Steven Raphael
,
University of California-Berkeley
Emily Owens
,
University of California-Irvine
Juan F. Vargas
,
Del Rosario University
John Donohue
,
Stanford University
JEL Classifications
  • K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior
  • J1 - Demographic Economics