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Inflation: Then and Now

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM (PST)

The Marker Union Square San Francisco, Astor
Hosted By: History of Economics Society
  • Chair: Giulia Zacchia, Sapienza University of Rome

The Evolution of Keynes’s Thought on Inflation: Nuance and Pragmatism

Nina Eichacker
,
University of Rhode Island

Abstract

In recent years, public opinion about the potential for inflation and the need to intervene with policy has received considerable media attention. Neoclassical, Monetarist, and New Classical economists have consistently criticized Keynesian economic thought for its focus on aggregate demand, and argued that proponents of Modern Monetary Theory exemplify the Keynesian perspective on inflation. This paper considers the evolution of Keynes’s thought on inflation, with particular emphasis on his academic work and his policy work. It argues that Keynes’s writings about the potential for inflation and his policy suggestions embodied more nuance than he receives credit for, and considers in particular his debates with economists and policy makers promoting what might be described as Keynesian or Post Keynesian ideas of their own

Beyond the Phillips Curve: Some Italian Perspectives

Carlo D'Ippoliti
,
Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract

The contemporary debate on inflation largely revolves around the steepness or the supposed death or return of the Phillips curve. This need not, and has not always been the case. In this presentation, I will focus on the contributions from two Italian economists over the 1970s and 1980s. On the one hand, Salvatore Biasco, who stressed how the real and financial interdependence of open economies and the collapse of the dollar exchange regime require a radically different analysis of the causes and consequences of inflation: not just in the obvious sense of “imported inflation” (whenever imported goods are used as means of production), but especially in terms of compatibility between the main bloc’s macroeconomic position, and the creation of international liquidity stimulated by the need to finance macroeconomic imbalances. On the other hand, Alessandro Roncaglia, who analysing the global oil market stressed the pervasiveness of non-competitive conditions, in the form not only of an oligopoly of oil producing multinational firms, but also of substantial market power on the side of a few resource-rich countries, and a dominating role for (little regulating) international speculation on commodity-based derivates. Both stress how a globalized system of open economies requires a much more complex view of inflation than is usually realised.

From Tawney to Noyola: Understanding Latin American Structural Inflation

Wesley C. Marshall
,
National Autonomous University of Mexico
Gregorio Vidal
,
National Autonomous University of Mexico

Abstract

At its most basic level, Latin American Structuralism posits that the region has different economic structures than those of center countries, and that theory and policy, if they are to be successful, must respect these differences. Understanding exactly what these differences are therefore becomes key. For example, the idea that the region cannot produce sufficient capital is not correct. However, as we argue here, the idea that the region suffers from greater inflation than the countries of the center for structural reasons, is a legitimate one, however confused the arguments for structural inflation have been in the past. In this presentation, we apply the thinking of Tawney to the Latin American context to argue for the importance of the role of intermediaries in Latin American structural inflation.

Conflict Inflation in the Center and the Periphery

Matías Vernengo
,
Bucknell University
Esteban Perez Caldentey
,
UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Abstract

The paper draws inspiration from the Latin American Structuralist tradition. It presents a model of conflict inflation for an open economy. It highlights how exogenous external inflationary shocks affect center and periphery economies. It particularly emphasizes the larger effect of inflationary shocks in countries where the impact of the exchange rate is larger in the domestic economy.

Discussant(s)
Giulia Zacchia
,
Sapienza University of Rome
Robert W. Dimand
,
Brock University
Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
,
American University-Paris
Rebeca Gomez Betancourt
,
University of Lyon
JEL Classifications
  • B2 - History of Economic Thought since 1925
  • E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles