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  5. Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics

ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)

Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

  • Thomas Fujiwara
  • Kyle Meng
  • Tom Vogl
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
vol. 8, no. 4, October 2016
(pp. 160–88)
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Abstract

We estimate habit formation in voting--the effect of past on current turnout--by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952-2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6-1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers.

Citation

Fujiwara, Thomas, Kyle Meng, and Tom Vogl. 2016. "Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8 (4): 160–88. DOI: 10.1257/app.20140533

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D72 Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
  • D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • N42 Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
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