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  5. The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

AEA Papers and Proceedings

ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)

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The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft

  • Martha J. Bailey
  • Eric Chyn
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 110, May 2020
(pp. 220–25)
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Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of the Vietnam War on fertility rates in the late 1960s and early 1970s. For draft-eligible men wishing to avoid military service, the hardship deferment (III-A) for paternity created a powerful incentive to father a child. We provide a time series analysis suggesting that the risk of being drafted and the availability of the paternity deferments significantly increased US fertility rates, especially among childless women likely to be partnered with draft-eligible men. Our results suggest caution in attributing the decline in fertility after 1970 solely to the legalization of abortion.

Citation

Bailey, Martha J., and Eric Chyn. 2020. "The Demographic Effects of Dodging the Vietnam Draft." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 220–25. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201106

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • H56 National Security and War
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
  • H56 National Security and War
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • J16 Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination