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Short-Time Work Arrangements: Recent Developments and Policy Implications

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PDT)

Manchester Grand Hyatt, Harbor E
Hosted By: Labor and Employment Relations Association
  • Chair: Etienne Lalé, University of Quebec-Montreal

The Effect of Structural and Cyclical Changes on Trends across Time in the Number of Workers in Contingent and Alternative Work Arrangements

Anne Polivka
,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Abstract

Despite numerous media reports that the prevalence of contingent and alternative work arrangements have increased overtime, there is scant evidence to support this contention. This paper explores structural and cyclical influences that could be affecting the aggregate estimates of the proportion of the employed who are in contingent or alternative work arrangements. Because industries use workers in these arrangements at different rates and because occupations differ in the degree to which these arrangement can be utilized, changes in both the industrial and occupational composition of the U.S. economy could influence trends in the proportion of workers who are in contingent or alternative work arrangements. The effect of these structural shifts are analyzed in this paper using shift- share analysis. Similarly, workers' desire and need to be in contingent or alternative work arrangements could vary over the business cycle. The effect of the business cycle is examined in a regression context using the unemployment rate at both the national and state level as indicators of cyclical variation. Finally, in addition to an examination of influences on the aggregate estimates, effects within specific industries -- such as the transportation industry -- are examined to determine if some industries are undergoing transformation, even if there are no observed effects in aggregate estimates for the entire economy.

Involuntary Part-Time Work and the Gig Economy: Boon or Bane?

Robert Valletta
,
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract

In recent decades, both involuntary part-time employment and informal employment in the on-demand or "gig" economy have grown. Prior research suggests that these trends may be related, with gig work acting as a source of supplemental income for individuals employed part-time but wanting more hours. I will use CPS and other microdata to assess the systematic relationships between these trends, focusing on the extent to which the growing availability of gig jobs reflects added flexibility for hours-constrained workers (a "boon") or a source of additional income instability for struggling workers "bane").

Part Time Pay Penalties are Persisting

Lonnie Golden
,
Pennsylvania State University-Abington

Abstract

Do part time workers experience an hourly earnings rate disadvantage? If so, how does that vary by type of worker, sector, hours and reason for part time working? We use all CPS MORG data pooled from 2003-2018-picking up where left off by Hirsch (2005). We compute a raw pay penalty for "usually working part time" hours, with state and year fixed effects; then, an adjusted pay penalty, controlling for the range of workers' demographic and work characteristics, and finally, a fixed effects model. We compare the pay penalty size by gender and race, by number of weekly hours, union status and reason for working less than full time-voluntary or involuntarily reasons (slack work and business conditions or could only find part time). We interpret the latter results in light of compensating wage differential theory. We find wide disparities in the adjusted pay penalty by type of industry-all but one exception sector have negative pay penalties, ranging from 6% to almost 50%. We find there are smooth size gradations inversely related to both weekly hours and to voluntariness. Finally, we estimate fixed effects models, using the panel feature of the CPS-and worker changes between part time and full time status-to get a pure wage penalty estimate. This reduces the penalty sizes to being almost as small as was found by Hirsch (2005), suggesting a marked role played by some kind of heterogeneity between full and part time workers. A unique approach here separates out hourly paid from salaried workers-this shows larger pay penalties the hourly paid, while salaried part time workers actually receive pay premia. Policy implications are inferred regarding regulations of part time jobs, following the pay parity policies in other advanced countries, ILO standards, and recent access to house ordinances.

Reconciling Survey and Administrative Measures of Self-Employment

James R. Spletzer
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Katharine G. Abraham
,
University of Maryland
John Haltiwanger
,
University of Maryland
Claire Hou
,
University of Maryland
Kristin Sandusky
,
U.S. Census Bureau

Abstract

This paper addresses key questions about self-employment: whether and how much such work has grown over the past several decades, the characteristics of self-employment work and workers, and how self-employment interacts with wage and salary employment. Existing household survey data do a poor job of capturing self-employment, whereas administrative data typically contain limited information about the people who are doing it. We combine records from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) with earnings information contained in the Social Security Administration’s Detailed Earnings Record (DER) files. The information in the DER on self-employment earnings comes from Schedule SE filings; the DER also includes Form W-2 information on wage and salary earnings. This linked data file covers the 1996-2015 period.

Analysis of the linked CPS-ASEC and DER records has produced several key findings:
• Over the 1996-2015 period, two-thirds of those with self-employment earnings in the DER had no self-employment earnings in the CPS-ASEC.
• Between 1996 and 2015, the number of people with self-employment earnings in the DER but not the CPS-ASEC grew by 6.2 million; the number with CPS-ASEC self-employment earnings who did not have DER self-employment earnings changed relatively little and the gap between the two self-employment series grew by 5.5 million.

This paper investigates alternative explanations for the growing number of DER self-employed with no CPS-ASEC self-employment earnings. Possible contributing factors include changes in workforce characteristics (e.g. growth in the number of older self-employed persons), changes in the persistence of self-employment, and changes in reporting behavior.
Discussant(s)
Stuart Glosser
,
University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Susan Houseman
,
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Shaimaa Yassin
,
McGill University
JEL Classifications
  • J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor