Farmer Adaptations to Climate and Environmental Change
Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 12:30 PM - 2:00 PM (PDT)
- Chair: Robert Chambers, University of Maryland-College Park
Do Climate Signals Matter? Evidence from Agriculture
AbstractThe foreseeable impacts of climate change on humans depend critically on the ability of societies to adapt to new climatic signals. Recent literature based on the US experience suggest little to no adaptation to climate trends in crop agriculture. We revisit this question using crop yield data from France and the US, as well as a novel panel econometrics framework that allows yearly outcomes to jointly respond to contemporaneous weather and climate signals, delivering estimates of both short-run (without climatic adaptation) and long-run (with climatic adaptation) warming impacts. In our most conservative model, which strictly relies on trends in climate to identify adaptation potential, we find implicit evidence of adaptation to beneficial temperatures (as captured by growing degree days), extreme heat, and precipitation. The evidence is particularly strong for France, which has experienced temperature trends over the past decades about twice as steep as those occurring in the US corn belt. Counterfactual analysis suggests that in France and the US, climatic adaptation has and can buffer against detrimental warming effects.
Are Yields Slowing Down Due to Recent Climate Trends? Evidence from a Farm-level Panel in France?
AbstractThere is a clear slowdown in wheat yields in much of Western Europe. Recent work has linked
this slowdown to ongoing climate trends. However, this literature has not explicitly accounted
for input use, which has been strongly affected by recent reforms of the European Common
Agricultural Policy. For instance, decoupling subsidies from output quantities changed incentives for producers, potentially leading to a reduction in the intensity of input usage. However, each farmer is different and unpacking the effect of individual farmers’ inputs usage on the effect that climate has on yields requires a disaggregated analysis at the farm level. We thus rely on farm level panel data from 18,178 farms in France over 1990-2015 to decompose to what extent the recent slowdown can be attributed to climate trends, input usage and technological change. This work also highlights the interplay between farmer input use and technological change in modulating the role of weather in agricultural production.
- Q5 - Environmental Economics