American Economic Journal:
Microeconomics
ISSN 1945-7669 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7685 (Online)
Learning in Games and the Interpretation of Natural Experiments
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics
vol. 14,
no. 3, August 2022
(pp. 353–77)
Abstract
We show that the treatment effect estimated by standard methods such as regression discontinuity analysis or difference-in-differences may contain a transient "learning effect" that is entangled with the long-term effect of the treatment. This learning effect occurs when the variable of interest is the agents' efforts, when treatment and control correspond to success or failure: success or failure gives agents information about how much their effort matters, and consequently changes the amount of effort they provide after treatment. We examine the impact of the learning effect and when it is likely to be substantial.Citation
Fudenberg, Drew, and David K. Levine. 2022. "Learning in Games and the Interpretation of Natural Experiments." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 14 (3): 353–77. DOI: 10.1257/mic.20200106Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C13 Estimation: General
- C21 Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- I20 Education and Research Institutions: General
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