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Automation and the Workforce

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM

Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Grand Ballroom Salon F
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: David Autor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Robots and Jobs: Evidence From United States Labor Markets

Daron Acemoglu
,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Pascual Restrepo
,
Boston University

Abstract

As robots and other computer-assisted technologies take over tasks previously performed by labor, there is increasing concern about the future of jobs and wages. We analyze the effect of the increase in industrial robot usage between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets. Using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, we show that robots may reduce employment and wages, and that the local labor market effects of robots can be estimated by regressing the change in employment and wages on the exposure to robots in each local labor market—defined from the national penetration of robots into each industry and the local distribution of employment across industries. Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We bolster this evidence by showing that the commuting zones most exposed to robots in the post-1990 era do not exhibit any differential trends before 1990. The impact of robots is distinct from the impact of imports from China and Mexico, the decline of routine jobs, offshoring, other types of IT capital, and the total capital stock (in fact, exposure to robots is only weakly correlated with these other variables). According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent.

Automation and Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment

James Bessen
,
Boston University

Abstract

Will industries use new information technologies to eliminate jobs? Sometimes productivity-enhancing technology increases industry employment instead. In manufacturing, jobs grew along with productivity for a century or more; only later did productivity gains bring declining employment. What changed? Markets became saturated. Using two centuries of data, a simple model of demand accurately explains the rise and fall of employment in the US textile, steel, and automotive industries. The model also predicts that computer technology should generate relatively greater job growth in non-manufacturing industries today. Estimates show computer use is associated with declining employment in manufacturing industries, but not in other sectors.

Individual Consequences of Occupational Decline

Georg Graetz
,
Uppsala University

Abstract

Using population-level longitudinal data for Sweden 1960-2015, we investigate the consequences of technology-driven occupational decline for individual workers. We focus on technologies which are directly linked to the replacement of narrowly-defined occupations. We compare workers in affected occupations to those with similar characteristics who are not directly affected. We investigate the long-run consequences of exposure to occupational decline for workers’ earnings, labor-force participation, and occupational choice, among other outcomes.

Value Migration and Industry 4.0 in the Auto Industry: Theory, Field Evidence, and Propositions

Susan Helper
,
Case Western Reserve University

Abstract

Our paper offers several predictions about how Industry 4.0—-the coordinated use of robots, sensors, AI, and other digitally-enabled technologies in manufacturing—-will affect which firms and occupations capture value in manufacturing. We develop our insights using in-depth interviews with manufacturers that are part of the automotive value chain, including parts suppliers and automakers, and with integrators who provide robotics and other advanced automation to manufacturers. Among other findings, we highlight that value migration within firms likely affects whether and how value migration occurs across firms.
 

Discussant(s)
Philippe Aghion
,
Harvard University
Avi Goldfarb
,
University of Toronto
Georg Graetz
,
Uppsala University
Robert Seamans
,
New York University
JEL Classifications
  • O3 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
  • J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor