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Marriott Marquis, Rancho Santa Fe 2
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American Economic Association
Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional
trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect
is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between
1992 and 1994. Using recent data from the Trustlab project, coordinated by the OECD,
we find that young first time voters exposed to the corruption scandal still today, 25
years later, exert significantly lower institutional trust. A follow up survey reveals that
their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting behavior and political
preferences. In particular, those young first time voters exposed to the corruption were
more likely to vote for populist parties at the 2018 national elections and to have less
favourable attitudes towards immigrants and refugees.
Causes of Populism and Its Related Political Preferences
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 5, 2020 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (PDT)
- Chair: Francesco Passarelli, University of Turin and Bocconi University
How Cable News Reshaped Local Government
Abstract
Partisan cable news broadcasts have a causal effect on the size and composition of budgets in U.S. localities. Utilizing channel positioning as an instrument for viewership, we show that exposure to the conservative Fox News Channel shrinks local government budgets, while liberal MSNBC enlarges them. Revenue changes are driven by shifts in property taxes, a key tool for local redistributive policy. Expenditure changes are driven by public hospital expenditures, an important discretionary public good provided by local governments. We also find evidence that Fox exposure increased privatization (while MSNBC decreased it). An analysis of mechanisms suggests that the results are driven by changes in voter preferences, but not by changes in partisan control of city governments.Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy
Abstract
The paper studies the long term impact of corruption on trust towards institutions.Previous studies have demonstrated that exposure to corruption may lower institutional
trust in the short run. Whether those short term effects translate into a persistent effect
is not known. We study the onset of a corruption shock that took place in Italy between
1992 and 1994. Using recent data from the Trustlab project, coordinated by the OECD,
we find that young first time voters exposed to the corruption scandal still today, 25
years later, exert significantly lower institutional trust. A follow up survey reveals that
their exposure to corruption also affected their current voting behavior and political
preferences. In particular, those young first time voters exposed to the corruption were
more likely to vote for populist parties at the 2018 national elections and to have less
favourable attitudes towards immigrants and refugees.
Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States
Abstract
This paper examines how economic insecurity and cultural anxiety have triggered the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit two quasi-natural experiments, the Great Recession and the 2014 immigration crisis, to investigate the effects of unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism and populist voting in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. I discover that recent unemployment during the Great Recession, rather than existing unemployment from before the recession, increased the probability of attitudes forming against wealthy elites by more than 14 percentage points. Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic unfairness as a mechanism through which recent unemployment drove left-wing populism. However, cultural anxiety rather than economic insecurity escalated by more than 12 percentage points the probability of anti-immigration attitudes developing. These attitudes are related to right-wing populism. Furthermore, I obtain evidence that cohorts economically suffering the aftermath of the Great Recession were 42 percentage points more inclined to support left-wing populist Bernie Sanders, while cohorts residing in regions most intensely impacted by the immigration crisis were 10 percentage points more likely to vote for right-wing populist Donald Trump. My study disentangles economic insecurity from cultural anxiety and links each of them to a different type of populism.Collective Emotions and Protest Vote
Abstract
We leverage on important findings in social psychology to build a behavioral theory of protest vote. An individual develops a feeling of resentment if she loses income over time while richer people do not, or if she does not gain as others do, i.e. when her relative deprivation increases. In line with the Intergroup Emotions Theory, this feeling is amplified if the individual identifies with a community experiencing the same feeling. Such a negative collective emotion, which we define as aggrievement, fuels the desire to take revenge against traditional parties and the richer elite, a common trait of populist rhetoric. The theory predicts higher support for the protest party when individuals identify more strongly with their local community and when a higher share of community members are aggrieved. We test this theory using longitudinal data on British households and exploiting the emergence of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in Great Britain in the 2010 and 2015 national elections. Empirical findings robustly support theoretical predictions. The psychological mechanism postulated by our theory survives the controls for alternative non-behavioral mechanisms (e.g. information sharing or political activism in local communities).JEL Classifications
- H3 - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
- Z0 - General