This website uses cookies.

By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance and traffic. For more information on our use of cookies, please see our Privacy Policy.

« Back to Results

Safety and the Social Costs of Transportation

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2020 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM (PDT)

Manchester Grand Hyatt, Gaslamp D
Hosted By: Transportation and Public Utilities Group
  • Chair: Bijan Vasigh, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

Charles F. Mason
,
University of Wyoming

Abstract

The domestic crude oil industry was witnessed a remarkable expansion over the past ten years. Much of the new production occurs in regions not well serviced by existing oil pipelines, and so firms have increasingly turned to rail as a mode of transport. In turn, this has led to concerns related to safety. In response to these safety concerns, the US Department of Transportation (DOT) adopted a new rule governing rail shipments of oil. These observations point to the importance of understanding the risks associated with rail shipments.
In this paper I provide a careful empirical assessment of the risks associated with shipping a given amount of crude by rail. Using data from the department of Transportation, I construct an empirical model that links rail incidents to the quantity of oil shipped by rail. This data includes monthly observations on the number of carloads of crude oil shipped between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2014, as well as information on safety incidents associated with these shipments. I find a statistically important link between the number of cars containing crude oil shipped by rail in a given month and the distribution of incidents; in particular, increases in shipments are associated with a rightward-sift in the distribution. I find similar effects relating shipments to the volume of oil spilled as well as the dollar damages from spills. These effects are noticeably more important in states where recent increases in oil production – mainly associated with the deployment of unconventional techniques – has been most pronounced

The Marijuana Effect on Motor Vehicle Crashes

Richard Fowles
,
University of Utah
Peter D. Loeb
,
Rutgers University

Abstract

We are just beginning to be able to detect the policy implications of changes in marijuana laws and consumption across the US on motor vehicle related fatalities. This study examines the effect of marijuana use on motor vehicle related fatalities using a balanced panel of data across all states and Washington, D.C. for the period 2010 to 2016 using Bayesian sturdy statistics, i.e., s-values. It addresses the possible interaction between marijuana consumption and alcohol consumption along with the legal environment across states and time.

Assessment of Possible Global Regulatory Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions from International Shipping

Misak Avetisyan
,
Texas Tech University
Jasper Faber
,
CE Delft
Dagmar Nelissen
,
CE Delft
Tristan Smith
,
University College London
Isabelle Rojon
,
University College London

Abstract

During the last several years, there has been a significant increase in global merchandise trade and it is expected to grow especially between more distant countries. Subsequently, growing trade is likely to stipulate the use of international maritime transport, since roughly ninety percent of the world trade is carried via sea transport. International transportation is one of the substantial sources of global emissions, producing about 14% of global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG), and growing trade is expected to further increase the share of transport emissions and contribute to climate change.
This issue has drawn more attention as the negative impacts of the GHG emissions become more serious and significant. The International Maritime Organization, a UN body, has adopted a Greenhouse Gas Strategy that sets the ambition to reduce GHG emissions by at least 50% in 2050 and phase them out altogether as soon as possible in this century.
In this paper we analyze which policy measures are able to achieve significant maritime transport emission reductions and then we develop assessment criteria for evaluation of the relative merits of the different mid- and long-term policy measures. We also develop a methodology based on the energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) with transport mode substitution that enables an appropriate representation of the dynamics and responses of both the shipping system and global/national economies. Using our proposed analysis methodology in a number of case studies in order to produce outputs for small island states, developing and least developed countries, we illustrate the methodology and its capabilities, as well as produce evidence about how specific policy measures may have impacts on specific nations’ economic development and security.

Reducing Sulphur Emissions: A Maritime Supply Chain Perspective

Laingo M. Randrianarisoa
,
University of British Columbia
David Gillen
,
University of British Columbia

Abstract

The approach chosen by International Maritime Organization to reduce emissions from high Sulphur content fuel is to set a quantity target for an allowable amount of emission 0.5m/m by 2020. It is often argued that if the shipping sector generates a certain level of emissions, it is held responsible for reducing its emissions by some fraction of the amount. This approach, however, ignores that not only can be shipping economically inefficient in reducing emissions and other sectors may be much more efficient, but also shipping represents only one component of the supply chain in moving goods from origin to destination. This paper provides a new perspective for reducing emissions which focuses on improvements in supply chain upstream and/or downstream from the shipping activity. The empirical strategy consists of evaluating the impact of maritime connectivity and performance of logistics in supply chain, first on trade (exports and imports of goods), then on the number of vessels for bulk, container and general cargo. The UNCTAD liner shipping (bilateral) connectivity indices (LSCI) and World Bank logistics performance index (LPI) are used to capture the quality of institutions and logistics performance. We find evidence that improvements in supply chain can potentially increase both exports and imports of goods, by lowering the costs of trade. The growth in trade, in turn, can be accommodated by increase in size of vessels rather than increase in the number of vessels. These findings have important policy implications, as large vessels display higher fuel efficiency, resulting in lower emissions per unit of output.
Discussant(s)
James Peoples
,
University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Kenneth Button
,
George Mason University
Laingo M. Randrianarisoa
,
University of British Columbia
Patrick McCarthy
,
Georgia Institute of Technology
JEL Classifications
  • L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
  • H4 - Publicly Provided Goods