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Firms, Growth and Concentration

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PDT)

Manchester Grand Hyatt, Mission Beach B
Hosted By: Society of Government Economists
  • Chair: Chad Syverson, University of Chicago

Outsourcing, Occupational and Industrial Concentration

Nicholas Bloom
,
Stanford University
Audrey Guo
,
Santa Clara University
Brian Lucking
,
Stanford University

Abstract

We use data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau to investigate the concentration of firms, occupations, and industries over time. We find strong evidence for increased concentration of firms in terms of a secular decrease in the number of occupations and industries in which firms are active. The mean number of 5-digit occupations per establishment has fallen from 6.5 to 5.5 since 2000, with the top 3 occupations now accounting for over 85% of total establishment employment. Firm employment and payroll is increasingly concentrated in a few core industries. We argue that the rise of outsourcing and pressure on firms to focus on their core competencies is driving this concentration of activities within firms. Finally, we argue this could play a role for the rising segregation of employees by income and education across firms.

Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
,
Princeton University
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Nicholas Trachter
,
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Abstract

Using U.S. NETS data, we present evidence that the positive trend observed in national product market concentration between 1990 and 2014 becomes a negative trend when we focus on measures of local concentration. We document diverging trends for several geographic definitions of local markets. SIC 8 industries with diverging trends are pervasive across sectors. In these industries, top firms have contributed to the amplification of both trends. When a top firm opens a plant, local concentration declines and remains lower for at least 7 years. Our findings, therefore, reconcile the increasing national role of large firms with falling local concentration, and a likely more competitive local environment.

Synergizing Ventures

Ufuk Akcigit
,
University of Chicago
Emin Dinlersoz
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Jeremy Greenwood
,
University of Pennsylvania
Veronika Penciakova
,
University of Maryland

Abstract

Venture capital and growth are examined both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VC-backed startups have higher early growth rates and patenting levels than non-VC-backed ones. Venture capitalists increase a startup’s likelihood of reaching the right tails of firm size and innovation distributions. Furthermore, there is positive assortative matching: better venture capitalists
match with better startups, creating a synergistic effect. An endogenous growth model, where venture capitalists provide both expertise and financing to business startups, is constructed to match these facts. The degree of assortative matching and the taxation of VC-backed startups are important for growth.

Firm Growth through New Establishments

Toshi Mukoyama
,
Georgetown University
Dan Cao
,
Georgetown University
Henry Hyatt
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Erick Sager
,
Federal Reserve Board

Abstract

This paper analyzes the distribution and growth of firm-level employment along two margins: the extensive margin (the number of establishments in a firm) and the intensive margin (the number of workers per establishment in a firm). We utilize administrative datasets to document the behavior of these two margins in relation to changes in the U.S. firm-size distribution. In the cross section, we find the firm-size distribution, as well as both extensive and intensive margins, exhibits a fat tail. The increase in average firm size between 1990 and 2014 is primarily driven by an expansion along the extensive margin, particularly in very large firms. We develop a tractable general equilibrium growth model with two types of innovations: external and internal. External innovation leads to the extensive margin of firm growth, and internal innovation leads to intensive-margin growth. The model generates fat-tailed distributions in firm size, establishment size, and the number of establishments per firm. We estimate the model to uncover the fundamental forces that caused the distributional changes from 1995 to 2014. We find the change in the external innovation cost and the decline in establishment exit rates are the largest contributors to the increase in the number of establishments per firm.
Discussant(s)
Dominic Smith
,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Ryan A. Decker
,
Federal Reserve Board
Devesh Raval
,
Federal Trade Commission
Sina Ates
,
Federal Reserve Board
JEL Classifications
  • E0 - General
  • D0 - General