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Public Policy and Fertility

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025 8:00 AM - 10:00 AM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Golden Gate 4
Hosted By: American Economic Association & Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession
  • Chair: Orgul Ozturk, University of South Carolina

Air Pollution and Fertility Outcomes in Thailand

Pallavi Panda
,
State University of New York at Geneseo
Pasita Chaijaroen
,
Vidyasirimedhi Institute of Science and Technology

Abstract

The intertwining dynamics of air pollution and fertility have emerged as crucial facets of public health and demographic studies (Frutos et al., 2015). However, there is limited evidence regarding the effects of significant sources of pollution outside urban areas, such as forest fires, which are common in rural regions of developing countries. This study fills the gap in the literature by evaluating the impact of air pollution exposure due to fires on fertility outcomes of women in Thailand. We construct a woman-age panel using the Thai 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and combine it with the remote sensing PM2.5, fire, and wind data along with rainfall and air temperature station data to investigate how upwind burning affects PM2.5 and fertility outcomes in women downwind. Using upwind burning as an instrumental variable, considered exogenous to local economic activities, we identify the causal effect of PM2.5 exposure on fertility. Our results show that an increase in the levels of PM2.5 pollution concentration by1μg/m3 causes a drop of 7-10% births next year with respect to our sample mean. The fertility decline is corroborated by an increase in short-term contraceptive use by women. We find stronger effects for women residing in rural areas. The fertility decline is also concentrated in younger women below 25 years. We use Google Search data to show that increased access to information has an impact on the fertility decisions of young women. We also find evidence of quality-quantity tradeoff. With a first year of life exposure to PM2.5, we observe an increase in children’s protein consumption and pre-school enrolment. Since declining fertility can change the demographic composition and affect economic development, these results are of utmost importance to policymakers and add to our knowledge of the varied ways in which air pollution can affect society.

Forced Migration and Reproductive Health Care Services: Evidence from Turkey

Aya Aboulhosn
,
American University

Abstract

Do mass shocks to the supply and demand of the healthcare system affect access to those services? Are wealthier regions better equipped to handle such shocks? Mass migration is often considered to be a major shock to public health goods provision—one argument is increased demand may overwhelm the availability of goods and services, and affect natives’ access to resources. To understand how host governments and natives respond, I exploit the exogenous Syrian refugee displacement into Turkey after the 2011 civil war and assess the causal impact on native women’s access to reproductive health care services using the Turkish Demographic and Health Services (TDHS). Using a distance-based instrument, I find that Turkish women exposed to a higher concentration of migrants experience higher rates of reproductive healthcare access, as compared to women who are not exposed to the migrant shock. I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the refugee-to-natives ratio increases antenatal and postnatal care usage among native women by 1.87 and 3.2 percentage points, respectively. The main mechanism through which access to reproductive health services improves for natives is a shift to private healthcare usage, likely due to crowding out in public healthcare spaces. These effects are largely driven by wealthy provinces in Turkey, measured as those with above-the-median GDP levels, whereas the effects disappear for provinces that are less developed. This has important implications for both the ideal allocation of migrants across Turkey, and how policymakers can optimize the distribution of resources to compensate for the increased demand on the healthcare system.

Roe v. Rates: Reproductive Healthcare and Public Financing Costs

Runjing Lu
,
University of Alberta
Zihan Ye
,
University of Tennessee

Abstract

After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, states enacting near-total abortion bans experience an increase in municipal bond yields relative to states with preexisting laws protecting abortion. The effects are stronger in counties with higher ex-ante utilization of abortion services, sharper ex-post declines in access to abortion, greater public support for abortion rights, and higher dependence on female labor force participation. Using the stock market’s reaction to abortion bans following the overturning of Roe v. Wade and the staggered state-level adoption of laws restricting abortion providers in earlier years, we identify negatively impacted firms and reduced net in-migration as key factors underlying the rise in yields. Together, our results highlight the importance of reproductive healthcare, in particular abortion policies, in driving public financing costs.

Long-run and Multigenerational Impact of Abortion Legalization in the US

Sherajum Farin
,
Georgia State University

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the legalization of abortion in the U.S. during 1969-1973 led to significant improvements in the health, educational, and economic outcomes of women directly affected by this policy. In this study, I analyze how children born to these women and exposed in-utero to abortion legalization fare in life, particularly in terms of lifecycle health. I leverage the state-level variation in changes to abortion laws predating Roe v. Wade as well as the changes brought about by Roe v. Wade. I implement difference-in-difference and event study techniques on data from restricted-use administrative microdata on births and deaths in the U.S. Using decade-wise cumulative survival probability for cohorts, I find that having abortion legalized in the state of birth at the time of conception improves survivorship by 0.1 to 0.4 percent, with the magnitude varying depending on age and specification. The likelihood of cohorts conceived under legal abortion surviving the first decade of their lives gets markedly better than that of cohorts born in the pre-legalization era. This implies that the probability of surviving the most vulnerable time of life improves. The health gain during childhood potentially translates to long-term health, and my findings suggest significant improvement in cohorts' survival in middle age (ages 45-49). I observe relatively larger improvements in the white population, among those aged 30-49, and longer-term persistence of health improvements in women. Cause-of-death analysis reveals reduced acute and accidental deaths in the first decade, which persists later in life, during ages 30-49. Additionally, improved immunity to infectious diseases is observed in terms of reduced mortality caused by infectious diseases. These findings highlight that access to legal abortion can have far-reaching implications spreading over generations, re-emphasizing the far-reaching impacts of legal abortion.

Discussant(s)
Siobhan O'Keefe
,
Davidson College
Bilge Erten
,
Northeastern University
Marianne Bitler
,
University of California-Davis
Devika Hazra
,
California State University-Los Angeles
JEL Classifications
  • J1 - Demographic Economics
  • I1 - Health